“The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Is the Truth Really Simple?
Ever since humans have gained the ability to form and express thoughts we have tirelessly searched for answers to questions such as "why are we here?" and "why does the world work the way it does?" Different people turned to different places for answers; some turned to religion, others to science, while many others simply came to the conclusion they will never get an answer.
While I’m not going to claim I've found the answers to those questions, it is very possible that Nassim Nicholas Taleb at least partially answered the question as to why the world works the way it does, in his bestseller The Black Swan.
Just to clear things up, this book has pretty much nothing to do with the movie by the same name. As a matter of fact, the name may very well be the only thing they have in common. In this case, we are presented with a philosophical book where Nassim explores the concept of the black swan, an event which is deemed practically impossible to happen and yet does, often carrying tremendous consequences behind it.
The book took its name from the black swan philosophical thought experiment during the 17th century. In that experiment, it was deemed that the chances of finding a black swan (at least from a European’s point of view) are impossible for no one has ever seen anything but white swans. However, in 1697 explorers found a black swan in Australia.
While Nassim explores a myriad of concepts in his book, the main point he is driving at is that the events in our world which are truly important are often the most unpredictable ones, for they open doors which we never suspected even existed. He believes that we place far too much importance on events of the past repeating themselves.
He presents some convincing examples, such as 9/11 and the stock market crash, two events which were completely unpredictable and had a tremendous impact on the world. Chances are that you won’t really end up liking the world of the black swan, but the fact remains that Nassim isn't here to take sides; he is here to try and communicate the conclusions he has come to from his own observations about how the world really works.
Just to clear things up, this book has pretty much nothing to do with the movie by the same name. As a matter of fact, the name may very well be the only thing they have in common. In this case, we are presented with a philosophical book where Nassim explores the concept of the black swan, an event which is deemed practically impossible to happen and yet does, often carrying tremendous consequences behind it.
The book took its name from the black swan philosophical thought experiment during the 17th century. In that experiment, it was deemed that the chances of finding a black swan (at least from a European’s point of view) are impossible for no one has ever seen anything but white swans. However, in 1697 explorers found a black swan in Australia.
While Nassim explores a myriad of concepts in his book, the main point he is driving at is that the events in our world which are truly important are often the most unpredictable ones, for they open doors which we never suspected even existed. He believes that we place far too much importance on events of the past repeating themselves.
He presents some convincing examples, such as 9/11 and the stock market crash, two events which were completely unpredictable and had a tremendous impact on the world. Chances are that you won’t really end up liking the world of the black swan, but the fact remains that Nassim isn't here to take sides; he is here to try and communicate the conclusions he has come to from his own observations about how the world really works.
Also, I feel it has to be added that the second edition of The Black Swan has been released, and in it Nassim adds an extra essay called On Robustness and Fragility, in which he discusses what most people probably wanted to hear: what to do and how to handle yourself when navigating the black swan world, and more importantly, how to exploit it to your advantage.
All in all, an eye-opening book, and if it won’t change your way of thinking, it will at least give you something to think about for the next couple of weeks.
 | Nassim Nicholas TalebPersonal site Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese-American author, essayist, scholar, statistician and risk analyst whose main topic of concern is that of probability, and everything that comes associated with it. He is well-known for his 2007 book, The Black Swan, in which he rather interestingly analyzes the concept of unpredictable events. |
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